Accuracy Tracker
Live record (made before kickoff)
77/120 — 64.2%
Total Live Predictions
120
Same 120 games, with pre-kickoff odds: model 77/120 vs bookies' favourite 78/120.
Weekly-updating model (week 6 onward, refreshed with each week's results until kickoff): 24/41.
Backtest (retroactive, generated after kickoff — not counted above): 226/285 — 79.3%
Prop forecasts
Live record: every forecast was stored before kickoff and graded against the real result. Voids (player didn't play) are left out.
| Market | Forecasts | Leans (W-L) | Lean ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 82 | — | — |
| Passing TDs | 62 | — | — |
| Rushing Yards | 236 | — | — |
| Receiving Yards | 448 | — | — |
| Touchdown Scorers | 172 | — | — |
Calibration: across all 1000 graded rungs the model gave an average 33% chance of going over, and 31% did.
Confidence Calibration
A well-calibrated model should hit more often on HIGH-confidence picks than LOW-confidence ones.
HIGH44 picks
61.4%MED28 picks
67.9%LOW48 picks
64.6%Accuracy by Week
1
10/16 (63%)
2
9/16 (56%)
3
13/16 (81%)
4
11/16 (69%)
5
10/15 (67%)
6
8/14 (57%)
7
8/14 (57%)
8
8/13 (62%)
All Predictions
| Week | Matchup | Predicted | Score | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wk 8 | WSH vs PHI | WSH(4% conf) | 27 - 10 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | MIA vs NE | NE(52% conf) | 19 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | DEN vs KC | KC(15% conf) | 28 - 24 | ✗ |
| Wk 8 | LAR vs LAC | LAR(56% conf) | 24 - 9 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | CIN vs TEN | CIN(64% conf) | 43 - 36 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | DAL vs ARI | DAL(38% conf) | 30 - 33 | ✗ |
| Wk 8 | DET vs MIN | MIN(32% conf) | 19 - 15 | ✗ |
| Wk 8 | NYJ vs LV | NYJ(7% conf) | 33 - 38 | ✗ |
| Wk 8 | BUF vs BAL | BUF(32% conf) | 36 - 10 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | JAX vs IND | JAX(58% conf) | 42 - 7 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | PIT vs CLE | PIT(1% conf) | 27 - 6 | ✓ |
| Wk 8 | TB vs ATL | ATL(0% conf) | 16 - 0 | ✗ |
| Wk 8 | GB vs CAR | GB(12% conf) | 27 - 19 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | PHI vs DAL | DAL(10% conf) | 21 - 38 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | SEA vs KC | KC(35% conf) | 20 - 3 | ✗ |
| Wk 7 | DET vs GB | DET(4% conf) | 20 - 17 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | LV vs LAR | LAR(2% conf) | 21 - 35 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | ARI vs DEN | DEN(46% conf) | 16 - 30 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | ATL vs SF | SF(49% conf) | 29 - 20 | ✗ |
| Wk 7 | HOU vs NYG | HOU(9% conf) | 21 - 27 | ✗ |
| Wk 7 | TEN vs CLE | CLE(43% conf) | 24 - 27 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | CAR vs TB | CAR(43% conf) | 13 - 43 | ✗ |
| Wk 7 | MIN vs IND | MIN(59% conf) | 16 - 10 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | BAL vs CIN | BAL(15% conf) | 13 - 35 | ✗ |
| Wk 7 | NYJ vs MIA | NYJ(38% conf) | 25 - 28 | ✗ |
| Wk 7 | NO vs PIT | PIT(21% conf) | 10 - 16 | ✓ |
| Wk 7 | CHI vs NE | CHI(1% conf) | 30 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | SF vs WSH | SF(76% conf) | 23 - 17 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | GB vs DAL | GB(14% conf) | 23 - 13 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | LV vs BUF | BUF(19% conf) | 30 - 33 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | KC vs LAC | KC(76% conf) | 22 - 6 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | LAR vs ARI | LAR(59% conf) | 16 - 18 | ✗ |
| Wk 6 | TB vs PIT | PIT(18% conf) | 19 - 26 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | PHI vs CAR | CAR(28% conf) | 14 - 25 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | NYG vs NO | NYG(31% conf) | 27 - 34 | ✗ |
| Wk 6 | IND vs TEN | IND(49% conf) | 20 - 26 | ✗ |
| Wk 6 | NE vs NYJ | NE(36% conf) | 26 - 19 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | ATL vs CHI | CHI(24% conf) | 23 - 31 | ✓ |
| Wk 6 | CLE vs BAL | BAL(23% conf) | 13 - 10 | ✗ |
| Wk 6 | JAX vs HOU | JAX(66% conf) | 31 - 34 | ✗ |
| Wk 6 | DEN vs SEA | SEA(11% conf) | 17 - 14 | ✗ |
| Wk 5 | LAR vs BUF | LAR(4% conf) | 34 - 37 | ✗ |
| Wk 5 | ATL vs BAL | ATL(1% conf) | 23 - 30 | ✗ |
| Wk 5 | SEA vs SF | SEA(59% conf) | 29 - 32 | ✗ |
| Wk 5 | ARI vs DET | DET(23% conf) | 21 - 45 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | LAC vs DEN | DEN(27% conf) | 17 - 23 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | WSH vs NYG | WSH(0% conf) | 27 - 27 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | MIA vs CIN | CIN(31% conf) | 24 - 31 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | NE vs LV | NE(45% conf) | 45 - 17 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | GB vs CHI | CHI(14% conf) | 31 - 7 | ✗ |
| Wk 5 | PIT vs IND | PIT(5% conf) | 34 - 22 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | NYJ vs CLE | CLE(16% conf) | 17 - 12 | ✗ |
| Wk 5 | NO vs MIN | MIN(6% conf) | 13 - 23 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | TEN vs HOU | HOU(47% conf) | 3 - 26 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | JAX vs PHI | JAX(27% conf) | 19 - 17 | ✓ |
| Wk 5 | DAL vs TB | TB(8% conf) | 16 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | NO vs ATL | ATL(13% conf) | 24 - 45 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | CAR vs DET | DET(6% conf) | 32 - 26 | ✗ |
| Wk 4 | LV vs KC | KC(2% conf) | 27 - 30 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | SEA vs LAC | SEA(49% conf) | 30 - 23 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | SF vs DEN | DEN(14% conf) | 24 - 14 | ✗ |
| Wk 4 | MIN vs MIA | MIN(37% conf) | 15 - 10 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | BAL vs TEN | BAL(34% conf) | 24 - 18 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | HOU vs DAL | HOU(39% conf) | 30 - 34 | ✗ |
| Wk 4 | PHI vs LAR | LAR(10% conf) | 20 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | NYG vs ARI | NYG(32% conf) | 36 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | CIN vs JAX | JAX(15% conf) | 17 - 22 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | BUF vs NE | BUF(19% conf) | 26 - 29 | ✗ |
| Wk 4 | TB vs GB | TB(11% conf) | 14 - 17 | ✗ |
| Wk 4 | CHI vs NYJ | CHI(49% conf) | 23 - 12 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | WSH vs IND | IND(4% conf) | 13 - 30 | ✓ |
| Wk 4 | CLE vs PIT | CLE(11% conf) | 27 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | CHI vs PHI | CHI(17% conf) | 27 - 7 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | DEN vs LAR | DEN(3% conf) | 30 - 26 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | NO vs LV | NO(31% conf) | 27 - 35 | ✗ |
| Wk 3 | DAL vs BAL | BAL(15% conf) | 31 - 34 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | TB vs MIN | MIN(8% conf) | 16 - 23 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | SF vs ARI | SF(39% conf) | 36 - 30 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | IND vs HOU | HOU(37% conf) | 19 - 17 | ✗ |
| Wk 3 | PIT vs CIN | PIT(5% conf) | 30 - 27 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | NYG vs TEN | NYG(30% conf) | 12 - 7 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | CLE vs CAR | CLE(4% conf) | 21 - 18 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | BUF vs LAC | BUF(30% conf) | 24 - 16 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | JAX vs NE | JAX(14% conf) | 35 - 6 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | WSH vs SEA | SEA(55% conf) | 33 - 31 | ✗ |
| Wk 3 | MIA vs KC | KC(7% conf) | 10 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | DET vs NYJ | DET(46% conf) | 31 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 3 | GB vs ATL | ATL(2% conf) | 14 - 35 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | LAR vs NYG | LAR(23% conf) | 28 - 6 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | KC vs IND | KC(12% conf) | 33 - 30 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | DAL vs WSH | DAL(15% conf) | 37 - 20 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | SF vs MIA | SF(25% conf) | 35 - 13 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | ARI vs SEA | SEA(64% conf) | 7 - 31 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | LAC vs LV | LAC(36% conf) | 14 - 26 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | DEN vs JAX | JAX(14% conf) | 20 - 13 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | TB vs CLE | TB(14% conf) | 19 - 23 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | NYJ vs GB | GB(30% conf) | 17 - 20 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | ATL vs CAR | ATL(5% conf) | 3 - 34 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | CHI vs MIN | CHI(9% conf) | 3 - 9 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | TEN vs PHI | PHI(23% conf) | 20 - 24 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | HOU vs CIN | HOU(21% conf) | 6 - 20 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | BAL vs NO | BAL(10% conf) | 17 - 24 | ✗ |
| Wk 2 | NE vs PIT | NE(28% conf) | 20 - 3 | ✓ |
| Wk 2 | BUF vs DET | BUF(25% conf) | 41 - 31 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | KC vs DEN | DEN(37% conf) | 31 - 10 | ✗ |
| Wk 1 | NYG vs DAL | NYG(31% conf) | 28 - 20 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | PHI vs WSH | PHI(23% conf) | 24 - 22 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | MIN vs GB | MIN(23% conf) | 39 - 22 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | LV vs MIA | LV(0% conf) | 27 - 13 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | LAC vs ARI | LAC(27% conf) | 14 - 26 | ✗ |
| Wk 1 | DET vs NO | DET(6% conf) | 31 - 30 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | CAR vs CHI | CHI(9% conf) | 37 - 59 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | TEN vs NYJ | TEN(23% conf) | 10 - 23 | ✗ |
| Wk 1 | PIT vs ATL | ATL(1% conf) | 20 - 13 | ✗ |
| Wk 1 | IND vs BAL | BAL(5% conf) | 23 - 41 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | CIN vs TB | CIN(12% conf) | 33 - 27 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | HOU vs BUF | HOU(16% conf) | 31 - 36 | ✗ |
| Wk 1 | JAX vs CLE | JAX(40% conf) | 34 - 10 | ✓ |
| Wk 1 | LAR vs SF | LAR(26% conf) | 7 - 27 | ✗ |
| Wk 1 | SEA vs NE | SEA(39% conf) | 13 - 10 | ✓ |