Best Bets

Lamb is the focal point of this Dallas offence, with a 32% target share and 12.8 targets a game, and both numbers are trending up. The total has been pushed up to 54.5 and Dallas are implied for 30.5, which is a healthy volume environment. Arizona's receiving defence is middling rather than soft, but it has let Jaxon Smith-Njigba run for 155 and Malik Nabers for 112 this season. Lamb has hit 80+ in two of his last five, with 189 and 112 in that run, and he had 85 against Arizona last time. George Pickens is questionable, and if he sits, more targets go Lamb's way. The hit rate over 10 games is only 3 from 10, which is the worry, but the role and game script are strong. I'm backing the over at 5/6.

London is the Falcons' main target, with a 33% target share and 9.4 targets a game. He has cleared 60 receiving yards in each of his last five, including 194 and 96 in the two games before his last two outings of 62 and 66. Tampa Bay rank 17th for receiving yards allowed to wide receivers and tight ends, so it's a middling matchup rather than a soft one. George Pickens did get 130 against them in Week 5, though. The worry is that 78+ has only landed in 4 of his last 10 and he went 55 and 34 in two of his past meetings with Tampa. But with the volume he gets and the game likely to be played through the air, I'm backing the Over.

Flowers is the clear focal point of this Baltimore passing game, with a 32% target share and 9.4 targets a game, and his snaps and targets are both trending up. He has cleared 50 receiving yards in all of his last 5 games, 80+ in 3 of those 5 and 6 of his last 10, and he put up 137 last time out. Buffalo allow the 3rd-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers and tight ends (221.7), and they have been hit for 142 by Amon-Ra St. Brown and 138 by Puka Nacua. He went for 143 against them in the last meeting. The worry is Lamar Jackson's questionable tag, with Tyler Huntley next up, so check the team news before kickoff. With the shootout total and Baltimore likely chasing the game, I'm happy to back the 80+ at 5/6.

This is a matchup play. Jacksonville allow 283 passing yards a game to quarterbacks, the third-most in the league, and they've given up 428 to Joe Burrow and 312 to C.J. Stroud. Indianapolis are 7.5-point underdogs with an implied 19.5 points, so they're more likely to be chasing the game than sitting on a lead. Jones has cleared 200 in 5 of his last 10 and 3 of the last 5, and the other game in that run, 269 and 267, shows the ceiling is there. The worry is the last outing of 108, his 60 against these Jaguars in the earlier meeting, and his pass attempts trending down. I still think 200 is a fair number against this defence, so I'm backing the Over, but only at moderate confidence.

This is a floor-style play on a back who keeps getting involved as a receiver. Jeanty has cleared 30 receiving yards in all five of his recent games, with 61, 36, 50, 68 and 37 in the last five, and 7 from the last 10. He sees 6.2 targets a game at a 15% share and has had 10 red-zone looks across the last three games. The one thing that worries me is that his carries trend is down, so his workload isn't growing. The Jets are only middling against receivers, so I'm not leaning on the matchup here. It's the target volume and consistency I like, and evens looks fair for the 30+ line.

This is all about volume. Gibbs is averaging 21 carries a game with the carry trend pointing up, and he has 20 red-zone looks across the last three games. He went for 116 last time out and has cleared 40 rushing yards in every one of his last 5, with 80+ landing in 3 of those. He has also hit 80+ in 2 of 4 against Minnesota, including 139 and 116 in two of those meetings. Minnesota's run defence is only middling, so this isn't a soft spot, it's a workload play. The worry is that he's listed as questionable, so check his status before kick-off. If he plays, I like the 80+ at 8/11.

Pollard is the lead back and the workload is going the right way: 18.2 carries a game, carries and snaps both trending up, and 9 red-zone looks over the last three. He has cleared 40 rushing yards in all of his last 5 games and ran for 129 last time out. Cincinnati's rush defence ranks 16th-most allowed to backs, so it's a middling spot rather than a gift, though Jaylen Warren did run for 127 against them in Week 3. Tyjae Spears is questionable, and any absence would only add to Pollard's share of the backfield. The worry is the 10-point spread: if Tennessee trails big, the carries could dry up, and he has only reached 80+ in 3 of his last 10. At 2/1 I think the price still pays for that, so I'm with him.

This is all about how low the bar is for Denver's lead back. Dobbins has cleared 15+ in all 10 of his last 10 and 24+ in 9 of 10, and he's hit this 25+ line in 4 of his last 5. He also got there in both meetings with Kansas City. The caution is real: Kansas City are 24th for rushing yards allowed to backs, which is a stingy spot, and his carries are trending down with just a 42% snap share while Jonah Coleman's role grows. He was also held to 23 last time out. Even so, a 13.8-carries-per-game lead back at evens for 25 yards is a price I'm happy with, so I'm on the Over, with the matchup keeping me to two stars.

Smith-Njigba is the focal point of the Seattle passing game with a 34% target share and 11.2 targets a game, and both numbers are trending up. He has cleared 100 in 4 of his last 5 and 7 of his last 10, and he has gone past 70 in all of the last 5. Chicago allow the 4th-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers and tight ends, and have been hit for 143 by Christian Watson, 138 by Jalen Coker and 123 by Matthew Golden. The one worry is that he managed only 32 against them last year, and Rashid Shaheed's questionable tag adds a little uncertainty to the target picture. Still, the matchup and the volume point the right way, so I'm happy with 100+ at 10/11.